MAGA Priorities
* Inflation and the Economy
* energy
* groceries
* housing
* insurance
* health
* home
* auto
* college
* Immigration
* illegal crossings
* deportations
* legal immigration
* Social
* Wokeness
* Bad schools
* Foreign Policy
* Ukraine
* Middle East
Inflation
This one is going to be tricky.
Tax Policy
Things like “no tax on tips” and “no tax on social security” increase cash flow to favored segments of the population but aren’t meaningful relative to a $7 trillion federal budget and $30 trillion GDP.
Extended the Trump Tax Cuts won’t hurt but won’t make much of a difference since they are already in place.
Tariffs
Tariffs *might* re-shore some jobs and should improve trade deals around the globe.
The problem with tariffs is, again, they favor certain industries over others.
Increasing jobs at Factory A via tariffs might decrease jobs at Factory B because Factory B now has to buy more expensive inputs from Factory A.
There is also a real possibility of American companies slow rolling changes to wait out the Trump admin.
Outcomes are extremely hard to know but short term impact is limited.
* Supply chains are months/years long
* Building manufacturing capacity takes years
* Economic shocks are possible
Energy
This is where Trump can crush it.
Expect energy price to come down significantly barring an outside supply shock.
Lower energy prices make everything less expensive.
The downside - lower energy prices leads to layoffs in the energy sector.
Groceries
Dropping the price of energy will help; however, grocery prices are unlikely to return to pre COVID.
The best thing Trump can do is make it easer for local producers to sell locally (lol, obviously) and across state lines.
Housing
This one is a catch 22.
Massive housing correction = recession = you don’t have a job so you can’t buy a house.
Lower interest rates = higher home prices.
Prices stay the same = young people can’t afford a home.
The plan to build Section 8 housing on pubic lands is both lame and a non-starter.
His plan to reduce regulations is 10/10 and will make a difference over time.
Insurance
ObamaCare must be repealed and health systems must be broken up for health insurance prices to drop.
Outcome - unlikely. Republicans in DC love ObamaCare.
Homeowners insurance only comes down if prices come down. I believe this will happen as we expand industrial (especially timber) production in America.
Auto insurance only comes down if:
* cars and repairs get cheaper
* uninsured drivers are removed from the road
* see deportations
College
College will get marginally less expensive as demand drops.
Prices fall through the floor if they kill federal student loans.
Hazards
* Industry and government make a ton of money thanks to the existing system and will resist any and all changes to the status quo.
* Trump has another 12 months to get A LOT done.
* his plans can be easily frustrated
* Republicans love spending and printing
* the main issue is spending and printing
* Populism is a form of progressivism
That’s it. That’s all I’ve got.
Live Free,
Kalian
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