Bombing the F out of Iran a few months before midterms (as a Republican) is a high stakes gamble.
Will it pay off?
I’m increasingly dubious.
The Stakes
The Framers give us an opportunity for mini rebellions every 2 years.
Unfortunately gerrymandering significantly reduces the number of House seats with any chance of switching Parties.
Out of 435 seats roughly 45 are in play. This is lame.
However, Republicans currently have a 3 seat majority while defending 25 incumbent “in play” seats.
Midterms are typically rough for the Party in power unless things are going great. which they are not.
If Rs lose the House it’s impeachment mania for 2 straight years.
If they lose the Senate (53-47 advantage) you can forget about any appointments and Justice Thomas likely stays on the SC.
The Challenges
One - all wars cause market disruptions.
A war in the ME disrupts the most importnat of all markets - energy.
Diesel at the gas station by my house was almost $5.50/gallon. In California I’ve seen it over $8/gallon.
Almost everything at Walmart is delivered by trucks with a diesel engine.
When diesel goes up so to do the products we buy every week.
“Trump bombed Iran and all I got was $9 ground beef.”
Two - media coverage is brutal. BRUTAL.
Three - the electorate has a very low tolerance for ME wars
Four - the electorate also has a very limited understanding of what is actually going on.
Five - Progressives hate Trump with the burning fire of 100 suns.
Suppressed GOP turnout because of 1 thru 4 combined with 5 spells trouble.
The Solution
Rubio runs point on Iran communication
it looks they are going with Vance…not smart.
Trump pivots HARD to domestic policy, especially affordability and immigration.
Trump went after “woke right” podcasters today. lol.
Give something to the MAGA base
Epstein stuff? I don’t know.
Live Free,
Kalian
